|
Myths and Distortions About Global Warming
By Jeff Wiita
Myth #1 Temperatures are Rapidly Increasing
A common misconception amongst the general public is that temperatures are rapidly increasing. This is only with some of the surface data, and it is selected surface data. In fact, much of the surface data that is collected is around urban areas or areas, which have had significant land use changes. And, that data is contaminated. Most cities of the world are hotter than their surrounding environment. This has nothing to do with CO2 but has everything to do with land use. On the other hand, satellites provide comprehensive coverage of the earth 24/7. Satellite data from the last 29 years has demonstrated that there has been an almost imperceptible rise in temperature in the northern hemisphere from 1980 to 2002 and a slight decline from 2002 through 2007.
Myth #2 Global Warming will cause an increase in Severe Weather
It has been said that global warming will cause more severe weather patterns. This is simply not true. All weather patterns on our planet are caused by the differences between atmospheric high and low pressures. All air flows from high pressure to low pressure. Our planet has three atmospheric circulations in each hemisphere caused by high and low air pressures (e.g., Polar Cells, Ferrel Cells, and Hadley Cells). The Polar Cells are circulation patterns from polar highs located at the North and South Poles to subpolar lows located at approximately 60o north and south latitude. The Ferrel Cells are circulation patterns from subtropical highs located at approximately 30o north and south latitude to subpolar lows. And, the Hadley Cells are circulation patterns from subtropical highs to equatorial lows located at the Equator. During periods of global warming, the Polar Regions warm twice as much as the Equatorial Regions. This decreases the differences between atmospheric high and low pressures. This decrease will decrease the atmospheric circulations. This will decrease the severity of weather patterns. History shows that storm frequency and intensity is greatest during colder periods. The extreme weather of the Little Ice Age (LIA) provides a good example. During the LIA, there were more cyclones when the atmosphere was colder.
Myth #3 Global Warming will cause more Severe Droughts and Floods
It has been said that global warming will cause more severe droughts and floods. This is simply not true. Warmer air can hold more moisture without cloud formation causing an increase in humid, sunny days and a decrease in droughts. Cold fronts force moisture out of warm air masses. During periods of global warming, the intensity of cold fronts will decrease. This will decrease flooding. Global warming will create ideal growing conditions. History shows that during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), vineyards flourished in northern England and the Vikings grew wheat and barley in Greenland. During the LIA, Europe experienced widespread famine because of continuous cloud cover and cooler temperatures. The greater risk to the human race is not global warming; it is global cooling.
Myth #4 Carbon Dioxide causes Global Warming
Water vapor comprises 95% of all greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a very minor greenhouse gas. Science is about testing a hypothesis. The real question is whether human contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere causes global warming (i.e., Theory of Man-Made Global Warming), and it needs to be tested. The Modern Warming Period started 160 years ago. During this time, the earthÕs surface temperature has increased 0.74o Celsius. During this time, temperatures have fluctuated greatly while CO2 has increased steadily. A recent report issued by NASAÕs Goddard Institute for Space Studies recognizes 1934 as the hottest year in U.S. history (e.g., top 10 ranking of hottest years in U.S. history: 1934, 1998, 1921, 2006, 1931, 1999, 1953, 1990, 1938 and 1939). Global records show that between 1929 and 1939, which was a period of global depression (i.e., The Great Depression,), human contribution of CO2 decreased dramatically while global temperatures increased. Between 1940 and 1975, which is called the ÒPost War Economic Boom,Ó temperatures in theory, should have increased; however, they decreased for 35 years, while human contribution of CO2 increased significantly. The first test of the Theory of Man-Made Global Warming has failed. Satellite records show that since 1998, the global temperatures have stayed static or have declined slightly. Over the last 8 years, CO2 has increased 4% (i.e., 14 parts per million). The hypothesis predicts that global warming would occur. It hasnÕt. The second test has failed. The third test is in glacial ice cores. Through glacial core sampling, scientists have been able to liberate the earthÕs atmosphere from Antarctica and Greenland as far back as 400,000 years. They have found that the change in CO2 lags behind the change in temperature by 800 years. This proves that CO2 does not drive the change in temperature. Instead, temperature drives the change in CO2 in the earthÕs atmosphere. The current increase in CO2 appears to be caused by the Medieval Warm Period. The third test has failed the hypothesis. The Theory of Man-Made Global Warming has been tested, and it has failed.
Myth #5 An increase in Carbon Dioxide significantly increases the Greenhouse Effect and threatens the Human Race
Carbon dioxide's contribution to the Greenhouse Effect is logarithmic, which means that each doubling of CO2 will have the same impact, and hence, each additional unit of CO2 will have less impact than its predecessor. Doubling causes about a 2% perturbation to the radiation budget (i.e., 2% change in the Greenhouse Effect). Currently, the atmosphere holds CO2 at 380 parts per million (ppm). Scientists have determined that before human contribution of CO2, the highest concentration of CO2 in the last 650,000 years was 300 ppm. This is a 27% increase. However, in a geological time frame, there is nothing special about 650,000 years. During the Jurassic Period (199 – 145 million years ago) and the Cretaceous Period (145 – 65 million years ago) the concentration of CO2 was 10 times greater than it is today. During the Tertiary Period (65 – 1.8 million years ago) CO2 was 2000 ppm. Scientists have estimated that the 27% increase in CO2 has increased crop yield by 16%, for free. Hence, an increase in CO2 has little risk to the human race and great advantage for a growing global population. The greater risk is a decrease in CO2.
Myth #6 Trees remove CO2 from the Atmosphere
Plants use carbon dioxide to grow. Trees temporarily store carbon from CO2 during the photosynthesis process. Oxygen (O2) is the waste product of the photosynthesis process. Leaves store carbon for the shortest period of time. As leaves fall to the forest floor and decay, the carbon combines with oxygen and returns to the atmosphere as CO2. The tree body masses (e.g., trunk and branches) store carbon during the life of the tree. As the tree dies and decays, the carbon combines with oxygen and returns to the atmosphere as CO2. A small percentage of the carbon remains on the forest floor as soil carbon. Because plant life is perpetual around the world, plants neither extract nor contribute CO2 into the biogeochemical cycle (i.e., Global Ecosystem). It has been said that we should not cut down our trees because trees extract CO2 from the atmosphere. Wood products (e.g., construction materials or furniture) permanently store carbon, so long as we do not burn the wood products or place the wood products in a landfill; therefore, the harvesting of trees and the production of wood products permanently reduces CO2, so long as we plant a new tree crop when the mature tree crop is harvested.
Myth #7 There is a Consensus among Scientists
Scientists do not vote on scientific issues; however, there can be a widely accepted scientific position. The Theory of Man-Made Global Warming is not one of them. The Oregon Petition is a petition opposed to the Kyoto Protocol, organized by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine between 1999 and 2001, shortly before the United States was expected to ratify the protocol. Professor Frederick Seitz, a past President of the National Academy of Science, wrote a cover letter endorsing the petition. The Oregon Petition was the third, and by far the largest, of five prominent efforts intended to show that a "scientific consensus" does not exist on the subject of global warming. The petition includes the signatures of 17,800 scientists. Scientists, by their nature, are skeptical, not political; however, more and more scientists are realizing that they must speak out and risk their funding because the global warming alarmists are threatening western civilization. Mainstream media has censored these scientists because their climate forecasts do not have apocalyptic outcomes. The petition has been circulated again in October 2007. Stay tuned for the outcome.
Myth #8 Sea Levels will rise 20 Feet and Polar Bears will become Extinct by 2030
It has been said the man-made global warming will cause sea levels to rise 20 feet and polar bears to become extinct by 2030. This is not only, not true, but it is absurd. Scientists have estimated that, if all of the glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica melted, sea levels would rise one hundred meters. Scientists have also estimated that the temperature of the earth would have to increase 10o Celsius for this to happen because East Antarctica is simply that cold. Furthermore, there are no scientists that believe man-made global warming will cause this 10o increase. East Antarctica holds 80% of all glacial ice. This may sound like a contradiction, however, but during periods of global warming, the glaciers in East Antarctica grow. This is because of the increase in global evaporation and humidity. The current increase in sea level is caused by thermal expansion. Thermal expansion of the oceans has increased sea level by 7 inches in the last century. This is expected to continue at the same rate during the next century, so long as the global temperatures continue to increase. During the Holocene Climate Optimum, 5000 years ago, the earth's temperature was 2o to 3o Celsius warmer than it is today. Obviously, polar bears adapted to this climate change. They are with us today.
Distortions
In 1998, a study was released which is now referred to as the MBH98 because of the authorsÕ names (i.e., Mann, Bradley, and Hughes). The first author, Dr. Michael Mann, is discussed the most. Their report rejected the widely accepted temperature graphs that include the MWP and the LIA. Their graph became known as the "hockey stick curve" In 2003, former mineral exploration executive and policy analyst for the governments of Ontario and Canada, Stephen McIntyre, author of ClimateAudit.org, in cooperation with Ross McKitrick, Environmental Economist from the University of Guelph, Ontario, discovered that there was a programming error in the Òhockey stick graph.Ó Correction of the error reestablished the MWP. The Òhockey stick graphÓ is widely accepted in the science community as a fraud.
On August 4, 2007, Stephen McIntyre uncovered another miscalculation. This time it was in NASA's U.S. temperature records from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, under the direction of James Hansen. NASA responded on August 7 to tell McIntyre that the data was "changed correspondingly with an acknowledgement of your contribution." Despite the fact that NASA tried to block him from accessing U.S. temperature data, persistent efforts by the climate change blogger forced the government to amend U.S. temperature data. NASA now recognizes 1934 as the hottest year in U.S. history, not 1998, and 2001 has been completely knocked off the list of top 10.
By Jeff Wiita
Climate Change
The earth's climate is dynamic. It is always changing. There were periods in the earth's history where the climate was much warmer and much cooler than it is today. The current warming period is known as the Modern Warming Period. It was preceded by the Little Ice Age (LIA), which occurred around 1650 to 1850 AD. The LIA was preceded by the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which occurred around 800 to 1300 AD. There was also a warming period after the last great Ice Age called the Holocene Climate Optimum, and it occurred around 7000 to 3000 BC. The last great Ice Age ended 10,000 years ago (i.e., 8000 BC). During this time, the earthÕs surface temperature was 7o Celsius cooler than it is today. Looking at climate through a geological time frame, we would never suspect CO2 as a major climate driver because none of the major climate changes can be explained by CO2, man-made or otherwise.
Modern Warming Period
The Modern Warming Period started 140 years ago. During this time, the earth's surface temperature has increased 0.74o Celsius. This warming began long before cars and planes were invented, and most of the warming took place before 1940, during a period when industrial production was relatively insignificant. Between 1940 and 1975, which is called the "Post War Economic Boom," temperatures, in theory, should have increased; however, they decreased for 35 years and then increased for 22 years. On April 28, 1975, Newsweek warned the world of an upcoming man-made ice age. On June 24, 1974, Time Magazine also warned the world of an upcoming ice age. In 1998, there was a spike in global temperatures caused by a strong El Nino in the upper latitudes. This spike only lasted a few months. In 2000, sunspot activity started to decrease. This change in sunspot activity has been measured in the troposphere. From January 2002 to December 2007, the troposphere has decreased .09o Celsius/decade. During this period, CO2 has increased 14 parts per million (ppm) or 4%. According to the Theory of Man-made Global Warming, global warming is supposed to occur within the troposphere. It has not. If the current cooling rate continues until 2020, the earth will enter another period of global cooling similar to the Little Ice Age. If this occurs, we will not be able to feed our growing population.
Little Ice Age (LIA)
During the LIA, the earth's surface temperature was 1o Celsius cooler than it is today. During this period, the Black Death erased almost half of the human population from the planet. Famine was widespread because the clouds continuously covered the sun; therefore, the crops did not ripen. During this period, the early colonial settlements in the New World did not survive the harsh winters. British Astronomer Edward Walter Maunder discovered that the sunspot activity during the LIA was minimal to non-existent. This sunspot inactivity is called the Maunder Minimum.
Medieval Warming Period (MWP)
The MWP is credited for bringing Europe out of the Dark Ages and ushering in the Middle Ages. The LIA is credited for bringing an end to the Renaissance. During the MWP, the earthÕs surface temperature was 1o Celsius warmer than it is today. This was a period of great riches. Europe built great cathedrals and castles during this period. There were vineyards in northern England. The Vikings had a settlement of over 3,000 people in Greenland. This settlement grazed livestock and grew wheat and barley on soil that is permanently frozen today. They also buried their dead under ground. Today, those archeological gravesites are in permafrost. This leads climatologists to believe that there was no permafrost in Southern and Western Greenland during the MWP. Sunspot activity was very active.
Holocene Climate Optimum
During the Holocene Climate Optimum (aka, Holocene Maximum) the earth's surface temperature was 2o to 3o Celsius warmer than it is today. Fossils and DNA from tropical plants carbon dated back to this period have been found north of the Arctic Circle. During this period, man progressed from prehistoric era (i.e., the period before written history). The Holocene Maximum not only ushered in the development of writing systems around the world, but also the Bronze Age 3500 to 1200 BC. This was a period of great riches.
During the Bronze Age, man developed advanced metalworking techniques consisting of smelting copper and tin from naturally occurring outcroppings of ore, and then alloying those metals in order to cast bronze. This did not happen by accident because bronzing was invented independently in multiple places and on multiple continents. The rise of Ancient Egypt occurred during the Holocene Maximum around 3150 BC and lasted until the Roman Empire conquered Ancient Egypt around 30 BC. The Persian Empire and Ancient Greece also came to power during the Holocene Maximum, as did the Ancient Chinese Shang Dynasty from 1700 to 1027 BC.
Archeologists discovered that Native American settlements along the Columbia River did not eat trout and salmon during this period, but instead ate fish with large scales. This leads climatologists to believe that there were no glaciers or snowcapped mountains in the Cascade Mountain Range.
Between the Holocene Maximum and the MWP, there was a period of global cooling. Some climatologists call this period a mini ice age and believe that it contributed to the fall of the Roman Empire. During this period, the earth's surface was 1o Celsius cooler than it is today and the Bubonic Plague erased almost half of the human population from the planet. The Romans and the barbaric tribes of Europe could not feed themselves, and the barbaric tribes took advantage of this weakness in order to destroy the Roman Empire while looking for food. During this period, Europe fell into the Dark Ages.
Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming
Through glacial core sampling, climatologists have been able to liberate the earthÕs atmosphere from Antarctica and Greenland as far back as 400,000 years. They have found that there is a correlation between CO2 and the earth's surface temperature. The change in CO2 lags behind the change in temperature by 800 years. This proves that CO2 does not drive the change in temperature. Instead, temperature drives the change in CO2 in the earth's atmosphere.
Sunspots and Global Warming
Climatologists and astrophysicists from both NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) have patterned sunspots and temperature change independently of each other. They have both found that there is a direct relationship between sunspots and temperature change over the past 400 years. Sunspots cause global warming. Carbon dioxide is irrelevant.
Sunspots and Carbon Dioxide
Climatologists and astrophysicists have determined that during periods of high solar activity (i.e., increase in sunspot activity), more solar energy reaches the earthÕs surface including the oceans. Oceans are by far the largest reservoir of CO2. Oceans hold 70 times more CO2 than the atmosphere, and warmer ocean water holds less CO2. As the oceans warm, they emit CO2. This increases the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, and because oceans do not respond to temperature change as rapidly as the continents, oceans have a time lag. This time lag is called a "Memory." This is the reason CO2 lagged behind temperature by as much as 800 years when the earth came out of the last great Ice Age and entered the Holocene Maximum. Therefore, sunspots, via warmer oceans, are the main cause for the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, not man. TodayÕs current spike in CO2 can be directly linked to the Medieval Warm Period, some 800 years ago. Furthermore, thermal expansion of the oceans causes the increase in ocean depth. This increase has been 7 inches per century and is expected to continue at the same rate as long as there is global warming.
Sunspots Amplifier and Global Warming
Climatologists and astrophysicists have determined that sunspots alone cannot cause global warming because the increase in solar energy from the increase in solar activity is too small. However, they have sound the amplifier that causes global warming, and that amplifier is cosmic rays. Cosmic rays contribute to the formation of clouds on earth. During high sunspot activity (i.e., increase in solar activity), there is an increase in solar wind. This increase in solar wind blows against the cosmic rays, which decreases the amount of cosmic rays that hit the earth. This decrease in cosmic rays results in the formation of high cirrus clouds. High cirrus clouds increase the Greenhouse Effect (i.e., causes global warming). During periods of low sunspot activity, there is a decrease in solar wind. This decrease in solar wind increases the amount of cosmic rays that hit the earth. An increase in cosmic rays results in the formation of low altitude stratus clouds. Low, level stratus clouds reflect solar energy resulting in global cooling. This increase in stratus clouds has been documented in history as the cause of famine during the Little Ice Age.
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases are components of the atmosphere that contribute to the Greenhouse Effect. Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas. Water vapor comprises 95% of all greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is a very minor component of the Greenhouse Effect and is present in the earthÕs atmosphere at a low concentration of approximately 0.054%.
Carbon Dioxide's Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect
Carbon dioxide's contribution to the Greenhouse Effect is logarithmic, which means that each doubling of CO2 will have the same impact, and hence, each additional unit of CO2 will have less impact than its predecessor. Doubling causes about a 2% perturbation to the radiation budget (i.e., 2% change in the Greenhouse Effect).
Carbon (C)
The abundance of carbon in the universe, along with the unusual polymer-forming ability of carbon-based compounds at the common temperatures encountered on earth, makes carbon the basis of the chemistry of all known life (e.g., plant and animal).
Carbon Cycles
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a chemical compound composed of one carbon and two oxygen atoms. There are many carbon sub-cycles in the carbon biogeochemical cycle. One such carbon sub-cycle is the temporary storage of carbon in plants. Plants use carbon dioxide to grow. Trees temporarily store carbon from CO2 during the photosynthesis process. Oxygen (O2) is the waste product of the photosynthesis process. Leaves store carbon for the shortest period of time. As leaves fall to the forest floor and decay, the carbon combines with oxygen and returns to the atmosphere as CO2. The tree body masses (e.g., trunk and branches) store carbon during the life of the tree. As the tree dies and decays, the carbon combines with oxygen and returns to the atmosphere as CO2. A small percentage of the carbon remains on the forest floor as soil carbon. Because plant life is perpetual around the world, the net extraction or contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere is negligible.
Another carbon sub-cycle is the contribution and extraction of CO2 within the carbon biogeochemical cycle. All CO2 can be traced back to volcanoes; however, 3% of the CO2 in the carbon biogeochemical cycle can be traced to the reintroduction of stored CO2 by industrial human activities and is credited for increasing food production by 16%. Without this reintroduction of stored CO2, the human race would not be able to feed itself. One form of extraction occurs when shellfish extract CO2 from the oceans and permanently stores the CO2 in the formation of seashells (i.e., calcium carbonate; CaCO3). The seashells are deposited into the ocean floor in the form of limestone. Without the seashell extraction of CO2, life, as we know it, would not be able to exist on the earth surface because the atmosphere and the oceans would eventually become saturated with CO2. When there is an increase in volcanic activity, the additional CO2 eventually results in an increase in shellfish population. This increase could take thousands of years and occurs during periods of global cooling. Human contribution of CO2 is absorbed within this extraction process.
In 1614, Galileo was called a heretic because of his support for the Copernican Theory (i.e., Sun-centered solar system). Today, it is politically incorrect to oppose the Theory of Man-Made Global Warming. Most scientists with influential bibliographies do not support this theory. Scientists who speak out against this theory are called heretics and are denied funding for their research.
|
|||